Build a risk register, see the probability–impact picture, and run a Monte Carlo contingency in seconds. The analysis is free. The audit-ready report is yours for a one-time price.
What is a Monte Carlo contingency reserve? A Monte Carlo contingency reserve is a project budget buffer calculated by simulating thousands of possible risk outcomes rather than adding a flat percentage to the base estimate. Each risk in the register is assigned a probability and an impact range; the simulation samples from those ranges across thousands of trials and reports the contingency needed to cover a chosen confidence level, commonly the 80th percentile. This tool builds one in the browser: enter your risks with probability and impact, run the simulation, and export an audit-ready report with the probability-impact matrix and the recommended reserve.
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| Risk | Owner | Prob | O | L | P | PERT | EMV | Response |
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How the number is built: each risk may or may not occur, weighted by its probability. When it does, its cost is drawn from a Beta-PERT curve across your O / L / P estimates. We run the project many times and read the reserve at your chosen confidence. The expected cost is the average; the reserve is the buffer that keeps you within budget at that confidence.
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The thinking should be free. What you pay for is the defensible, shareable record of the decision.
A single contingency percentage hides the shape of your risk. Quantifying it gives you a number with a confidence level attached, and a record of how you got there. As routine analysis gets automated, that record is the part that still needs a human to sign it.
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