Build a risk register, see the probability–impact picture, and run a Monte Carlo contingency in seconds. The analysis is free. The audit-ready report is yours for a one-time price.
What is a Monte Carlo contingency reserve? A Monte Carlo contingency reserve is a project budget buffer calculated by simulating thousands of possible risk outcomes rather than adding a flat percentage to the base estimate. Each risk in the register is assigned a probability and an impact range; the simulation samples from those ranges across thousands of trials and reports the contingency needed to cover a chosen confidence level, commonly the 80th percentile. This tool builds one in the browser: enter your risks with probability and impact, run the simulation, and export an audit-ready report with the probability-impact matrix and the recommended reserve.
Edit the register below. Everything recalculates live. Nothing leaves your browser.
| Risk | Owner | Prob | O | L | P | PERT | EMV | Response |
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How the number is built: each risk may or may not occur, weighted by its probability. When it does, its cost is drawn from a Beta-PERT curve across your O / L / P estimates. We run the project many times and read the reserve at your chosen confidence. The expected cost is the average; the reserve is the buffer that keeps you within budget at that confidence.
Free, watermarked preview available before you buy.
The thinking should be free. What you pay for is the defensible, shareable record of the decision.
A single contingency percentage hides the shape of your risk. Quantifying it gives you a number with a confidence level attached, and a record of how you got there. As routine analysis gets automated, that record is the part that still needs a human to sign it.
SocraticFlow launches this summer. The first 100 people on the list get founding member pricing.
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We will email you the moment the tools go live, with your founding member access. In the meantime, try the watermarked preview to see exactly what the paid report looks like.
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