Pre-mortem & assumption stress-test

Assume it failed. Now work out why.

A plan that needs six things to be true is not as safe as six confident answers make it look. State what must hold, say how sure you are, and see what the arithmetic says about the whole.

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Odds every assumption holds—

What must be true?

List the things this plan needs. For each, how confident are you that it holds — and how much does the plan depend on it?

The initiative

Load-bearing assumptions

Confidence is your honest odds it holds. Dependence is how much the plan needs it — 5 means the plan is over if this is false.

What the arithmetic says

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Load-bearing 0 Weakest link — Most fragile —

Ranked by fragility

The post-mortem, written in advance

Generated from the assumptions above. Edit it — the point is the argument, not the prose.

Tripwires

An assumption you cannot check is a hope. What would tell you early that one is turning out false?

Report

Audit-ready pre-mortem — $29 The full report, unwatermarked: assumptions, odds, fragility ranking, the failure narrative and your tripwires.
Buy for $29

Free, watermarked preview available before you buy.

Pricing

Free to stress-test. Pay for the report.

The arithmetic is free. What you pay for is the written pre-mortem: the odds, the weakest links and the tripwires, in a form a board can read.

Stress-test

Free
  • Assumptions, confidence and dependence
  • The odds every assumption holds
  • Fragility ranking
  • Watermarked report preview
Open the tool

Report

$29 one payment
  • Clean pre-mortem report (PDF)
  • Assumptions, confidence and fragility ranking
  • The failure narrative and your tripwires
  • Ready to send to a board or sponsor
What the $29 buys →