Pre-mortem & assumption stress-test

Assume it failed. Now work out why.

A plan that needs six things to be true is not as safe as six confident answers make it look. State what must hold, say how sure you are, and see what the arithmetic says about the whole.

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Odds every assumption holds

What must be true?

List the things this plan needs. For each, how confident are you that it holds — and how much does the plan depend on it?

The initiative

Load-bearing assumptions

Confidence is your honest odds it holds. Dependence is how much the plan needs it — 5 means the plan is over if this is false.

What the arithmetic says

Load-bearing 0 Weakest link Most fragile

Ranked by fragility

The post-mortem, written in advance

Generated from the assumptions above. Edit it — the point is the argument, not the prose.

Tripwires

An assumption you cannot check is a hope. What would tell you early that one is turning out false?

Report

Audit-ready pre-mortem — $29 The full report, unwatermarked: assumptions, odds, fragility ranking, the failure narrative and your tripwires.
Buy for $29

Free, watermarked preview available before you buy.

Pricing

Free to appraise. Pay for the memo.

The comparison is free. What you pay for is the written, defensible record of why you chose what you chose.

Appraise

Free
  • Weighted scoring across options
  • Value-versus-cost map
  • Robustness check
  • Watermarked memo preview
Open the tool

Memo

$29 one payment
  • Clean pre-mortem report (PDF)
  • Assumptions, confidence and fragility ranking
  • The failure narrative and your tripwires
  • Ready to send to a board or sponsor
What the $29 buys →